The US blockade has kept Iranian crude exports at zero in October, according to a report from energy intelligence platform Vortexa, having plummeted in the second week of September.
– In September, oil flows from the Gulf excluding Iran surged to over 81 percent of pre-war levels in September, led by a recovery in Saudi exports.
– Iran’s seaborne crude exports fell to zero in the second week of September from a 14-day average of 230,000 barrels per day at the start of that month and have stayed there as of October 5, according to Vortexa.
– Meanwhile Iranian crude in tankers on the water has fallen to 83 million barrels, with 43 million barrels trapped west of the Strait of Hormuz due to the US blockade.
– “The blockade is doing what years of sanctions never managed: it has physically stopped Iranian crude from leaving the Gulf,” said Claire Jungman, Vortexa’s director of maritime risk and intelligence.
– Jungman added that China also no longer needs Iranian barrels as urgently as it did before because Russian crude has filled the gap.
– Iran’s liquefied petroleum gas exports also fell 48 percent month-on-month, Vortexa said, to their lowest since at least January 2023.
– With the drop in exports from Iran, crude from Russia makes up 80 percent of what Vortexa describes as “high-risk exports” – from Iran, Russia and Venezuela. Combined exports from the three countries were 4.73 million bpd in September, down from 6.39 million bpd in the same month last year.
– Russia’s exports — excluding Caspian Pipeline Consortium and KEBCO crude — rose 6 percent month-on-month to 3.79 million bpd, according to the report.