Taipei says its military stands ready, but security experts warn about Beijing’s ability to quickly pivot from drills to actual combat
– The US “decapitation-style” operation against Venezuela’s leadership has heightened concerns in Taiwan that Beijing could one day attempt a similar strike against the island, even though Taipei has played down such a possibility.
– The shocking raid has triggered heated debate in Taiwan, with supporters of the US action saying it showcased Washington’s unrivalled precision, intelligence integration and operational reach.
– However, critics cautioned that it could set a dangerous precedent, where major powers could launch lightning raids and topple leaderships for their own objectives.
– Deputy defence minister Hsu Szu-chien said the island’s armed forces had planned and rehearsed for “all kinds of contingencies” under existing emergency-response regulations.
– “For all possible sudden situations, we have preparations,” Hsu said. But he also urged lawmakers to speed up defence budget reviews, warning that the latest PLA drills around Taiwan had “seriously” undermined peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.
– Beijing has long cited mainland laws including the Anti-Secession Law as a legal basis for punishing what it calls “Taiwan independence elements”.
– Beijing has also in the past released videos of drills at its Inner Mongolia military base featuring mock-ups of Taiwan’s key government buildings.
– US move might encourage Beijing to believe that a well-equipped PLA could seize the moment to act.
– Beijing might “exploit any window created by a shift in US focus towards South America to intensify military pressure or harassment against Taiwan”.
– A sudden “lightning war” scenario in Taiwan could trigger an “instant collapse” – not only through military damage but via collective public anxiety and a sense of losing control.
– Beijing had long sought to map Taiwan’s leadership movements and command vulnerabilities through infiltration and intelligence collection – and Taipei must treat this area as a top priority.
– The PLA “has studied US doctrine closely, including concepts that prioritise seizing control of the electromagnetic spectrum before establishing air and maritime superiority”
– Taiwan was investing in “more resilient communications” – including frequency-hopping systems, point-to-point laser links and strengthened satellite communications – to “enhance continuity under electronic attack”.
– Washington was refocusing on the Americas in a posture akin to the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, “potentially crowding out attention to other regions”.
– Taiwan should rely on political wisdom to defuse cross-strait risks rather than push the situation towards military confrontation.