Russia has joined the debate about the security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia.
– Also, work on a joint Russian-Chinese draft UN Security Council resolution on the Iranian issue is underway. However, the senior Russian diplomat said further steps on that document will depend on talks between Tehran and Washington that may resume in the next 24 hours.
– The situation in the region has already caused major logistical disruptions, with the crews of multiple vessels refusing to enter the waterway amid threats. Against this backdrop, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has set up a task force to facilitate transit, an idea that has been questioned by diplomats. “This initiative includes creating certain structures by the UN Secretariat. It is difficult for me to judge if Gulf countries and Iran support the initiative,” Alimov said. “Our joint draft resolution with China is on the negotiating table at the UN, we have officially endorsed it. We are monitoring the overall progress in negotiations between Iran and the United States which have already held one round of talks. Hopefully the negotiations are not over and will continue,” the diplomat explained.
– Meanwhile, Iran has linked the prospects of talks with the US to the situation in Lebanon. Tehran views continued Israeli strikes as a factor that undermines confidence in diplomatic efforts. “Talks between Iran and the United States are key: if they are successful, this will have a positive impact on the situation in Lebanon,” Jamal Wakim, a professor at Lebanese University, noted.
– ury Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, told Vedomosti that Iran and the United States have been cautious ahead of a new round of talks. On Wednesday afternoon, the AP reported, citing sources, that Iran and the US have agreed in principle to extend the ceasefire, even as Trump said in public that he sees no need for an extension of the truce with Iran, according to ABC journalist Jonathan Karl. “The blockade itself is an act of war, and things can be escalated very fast,” Lyamin argued.
– A combination of the US blockade of Iranian oil exports and Iranian moves to let only friendly vessels pass could come next, director of the Center for Military-Economic Studies at the Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy of the Higher School of Economics Prokhor Tebin told Vedomosti. “But that situation would be bad for both Iran and the United States as it would not solve their problems in the short term. And it would be bad for the world economy, too. To achieve its objectives, the US would need to reopen the strait for everybody and block access to the sea for Iran,” Tebin said. According to him, the war could continue as, judging from the deployment of another aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, a group for serious operations is currently in the making.
https://tass.com/pressreview/2117907