U.S. President Donald Trump has signalled a tactical pause in Washington’s effort to escort commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, citing what he described as “great progress” toward a broader agreement with Iran. The decision, announced on social media, comes at a moment when the strait remains effectively constrained, disrupting roughly 20 percent of global oil flows and driving a prolonged energy shock across markets.
The pause applies to what Trump referred to as “Project Freedom,” an operation launched just days earlier to move stranded tankers out of the Gulf under U.S. military escort. According to the president, both sides had “mutually agreed” to temporarily halt the initiative while negotiations continue, even as the broader blockade remains in place. The duration of the pause is unclear, and the White House has yet to clarify what specific breakthroughs prompted the decision. There has also been no immediate response from Tehran, where officials have maintained a more guarded stance.
Markets reacted quickly. U.S. crude futures dropped by more than $2, slipping below the psychologically significant $100 per barrel mark for the first time since the crisis escalated two months ago. The fall reflects cautious optimism that a de-escalation in the Gulf could stabilise supply chains, though the underlying risks remain far from resolved.
Earlier in the day, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had outlined the escort mission, describing it as a necessary step to ensure freedom of navigation in a waterway effectively sealed by Iranian threats. Tehran has warned it could deploy mines, drones, cruise missiles, and fast-attack craft to control access to the strait, while Washington has responded with a blockade of Iranian ports and armed naval transits. The U.S. military confirmed it had already destroyed several Iranian small boats, as well as missile and drone systems, in recent engagements.
Rubio later declared that the core military campaign, launched on February 28 alongside Israel, had achieved its objectives. “Operation Epic Fury is concluded,” he said, emphasising that Washington was not seeking further escalation. Yet the strategic goals remain only partially met. One of the central aims of the campaign, preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, remains unresolved. Tehran continues to deny any such ambition, but it has not surrendered more than 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium, leaving a critical point of contention in ongoing negotiations.
Even as officials spoke of progress, signs of instability persisted. Britain’s maritime monitoring agency reported that a cargo vessel had been struck by a projectile in the strait, though details remain limited. At the same time, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that a navigable corridor had been secured and that hundreds of commercial ships were preparing to transit the waterway. He cautioned, however, that the four-week-old ceasefire with Iran was holding but fragile, a view echoed by Dan Caine, who noted that recent Iranian actions had stayed “below the threshold” for a return to full-scale combat.
Trump himself struck a characteristically blunt tone, saying Iran “knows what not to do” to avoid breaking the ceasefire, while also claiming that Tehran’s military capabilities had been reduced to “peashooters,” an assertion that contrasts sharply with continued reports of regional attacks.
Tensions spilled beyond the strait. The United Arab Emirates reported intercepting missile and drone attacks it attributed to Iran, calling them a serious escalation and warning of its “full and legitimate right” to respond. Tehran denied responsibility, insisting its military actions were limited to repelling what it described as American aggression. The exchange underscores how quickly the conflict could widen despite diplomatic efforts.
On the ground, the humanitarian and economic toll continues to mount. The war has killed thousands and spread beyond Iran to neighbouring theatres, including Lebanon and parts of the Gulf. The head of the International Monetary Fund warned that even an immediate end to hostilities would leave a recovery period of three to four months, highlighting the depth of the disruption to global markets.
Rubio added a stark human dimension, noting that at least 10 civilian sailors have died and that crews stranded in the strait are “starving” and “isolated.” Shipping companies are cautiously resuming operations. The Danish firm Maersk confirmed that one of its vessels, a U.S.-flagged ship, had exited the Gulf under military escort, though Iran disputes that any such crossings have taken place.
The political stakes are rising in Washington as well. The conflict is placing pressure on the Trump administration ahead of upcoming midterm elections, with rising fuel prices directly affecting voters. Trump has framed the military campaign as a response to what he called imminent threats from Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, as well as its support for groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran, for its part, has condemned the strikes as violations of sovereignty and reiterated its right to pursue nuclear technology for peaceful purposes under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Diplomatically, the path forward remains uncertain. Only one round of direct talks between U.S. and Iranian officials has taken place, with efforts to arrange further meetings repeatedly stalling. Still, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has indicated that negotiations are ongoing, with Pakistan playing a mediating role. Araqchi arrived in Beijing for consultations with his Chinese counterpart, signalling that China is also becoming more actively involved in shaping the diplomatic track. Trump himself is expected to visit China later this month, adding another layer to an already complex geopolitical equation.
For now, the pause in escort operations reflects neither resolution nor retreat. It is a calculated pause in a conflict that remains volatile, where military pressure, economic disruption, and fragile diplomacy continue to intersect in one of the world’s most critical waterways.