Is there a possibility that Iran might eventually pursue nuclear weapons as a final deterrent against the United States and Israel, especially if its conventional military capabilities and tactical equipment continue to be heavily degraded?
Yes, it’s looking more and more likely that Iran might go for nuclear weapons if things keep going the way they are. The U.S. and Israeli strikes have already gutted a big chunk of their missile force, reports say maybe only 100 to 200 launchers left, and knocked out key air defenses, naval stuff, and a lot of senior commanders. With Khamenei gone and his son trying to hold things together, that old religious line against nukes probably doesn’t carry the same weight anymore. They’ve still got hundreds of kilos of 60% enriched uranium sitting in hardened underground spots, and even though the IAEA says there’s no active weapons program right now, the know-how and material are basically ready if someone gives the green light.
When your regular military gets shredded like this and you can’t really hit back effectively, history shows countries start thinking hard about the ultimate insurance policy. North Korea did exactly that when it felt cornered. Right now Iran’s conventional options are shrinking fast, fewer and weaker missile barrages, proxies getting hammered, so the logic of sprinting to a bomb as the last real way to make attackers think twice starts to make a lot of sense to whoever’s left calling the shots in Tehran. Unless some kind of real security deal or de-escalation happens soon, that path is looking less like a maybe and more like a when.
However, pursuing a nuclear weapon would also carry enormous risks for Iran. Weaponisation could trigger overwhelming military retaliation, further economic isolation, and severe international sanctions. Iran has long maintained that its nuclear programme is civilian in nature, and crossing the threshold toward an actual weapon would represent a dramatic strategic shift. While pressure and insecurity might increase the incentive for nuclear deterrence, the decision would still be one of the most consequential and dangerous choices Iran could make in the current geopolitical environment.