Russia may have reached the limits of its peacetime naval presence in the Baltic Sea, while increased NATO patrols appear to be deterring potential hostile activities, Finland’s navy chief said Monday.
Rear Adm. Tuomas Tiilikainen told Sky News that the maritime security situation remained “tense” but “stable,” stressing the need to avoid further escalation.
“They (the Russian navy) monitor what we do, what NATO does, and we obviously need to monitor and maintain a vigilant guard on what they do and their activities,” he said.
Tiilikainen suggested that Moscow may see “no immediate need” to expand its naval presence or may have reached the limits of its peacetime operational capabilities in the Baltic Sea.
NATO launched its Baltic Sentry mission in January 2025 to bolster maritime surveillance following a series of suspected sabotage incidents involving undersea telecommunications cables and power infrastructure.
The mission deploys naval vessels and aircraft to monitor the strategic waterway and detect and deter potential threats to critical infrastructure.
Vessels belonging to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet have been among the main suspects in incidents involving undersea infrastructure.
Last week, a Finnish court convicted a cargo ship’s captain and another crew member of sabotage over damage to two telecommunications cables linking Finland and Estonia in December 2025. The captain was reportedly a Russian national.
Tiilikainen said no further attacks on Finnish underwater infrastructure had been recorded since the incident.
A NATO military official told Sky News that the alliance typically maintains at least three warships for every Russian military vessel operating in the Baltic Sea, with the current ratio estimated at around 4-to-1.
NATO allies have also intensified efforts to intercept and inspect suspected shadow fleet vessels, with at least 13 such operations believed to have taken place across Europe this year.
Tiilikainen said the alliance’s expanded surveillance and patrols appeared to be having a deterrent effect.
“Most probably the deterrence has worked today,” he said, adding that NATO had demonstrated its ability to respond to potential threats without escalating tensions.
He identified poorly trained crews and aging tankers as the most immediate risks in the Baltic Sea, warning that a maritime accident could cause a major environmental disaster.